Decision Analytic Framework or The price of gold, three months from now, will be the same or lower than it is today.
Decision Analytic Framework
In all experimental scientific research there is only one thing that is ultimately done. That is a decision to reject the Null Hypothesis ('Ho'). The only other alternative is to conclude that there is no evidence to suggest that the differences implied by a rejection of the null hypothesis, ie, the Alternative Hypothesis ('Ha'), is true. The rational decision maker seeking the truth or Profit, whether in science, business, investing, or fair discourse, must of necessity employ this model.
Alpha or "Type I" Error == Incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis.
Beta or "Type II Error" == Incorrectly not rejecting the null hypothesis.
A simple example of a Null Hypothesis is: The price of gold, three months from now, will be the same or lower than it is today.
Therefore, the logical negation of this statement becomes the Alternative Hypothesis: The price of gold three months from now will be higher than it is today.
There are of course "Costs" associated with making Errors. Later I'll lay out a framework for maximizing the Expected Value of a decision, as well as a theoretical framework attempting to explain why so many posters are so quick to "pull the trigger" and condemn another member.
Developing an appropriate and agreed upon nomenclature is essential for efficiently developing higher ordered Constructs.
More Definitions
There appears to be a significant population of individuals who make unsupported and unsubstantiated claims, assertions, that when asked to be accountable and provide evidence of such claims or assertions refuse to do so. The pattern of behavior may be best defined as Arrogant.
Arrogant behavior characterized by making unwarrantable claims, or by pretensions to superior importance or rights.
presume to assume as true; to undertake with unwarranted boldness
Hypocrisy is the pretense of having a virtuous character, moral or religious beliefs or principles, etc, that one does not actually possess. Alternatively, hypocrisy is the practice of one condemning in others that which is manifested in ones own actions.
Nomenclature is a set or system of names or terms, as used in a particular science or art, by an individual or community.
Construct a complex idea formed from a number of simpler ideas.
Vacuous without contents; empty; lacking in ideas; purposeless.
See link for more definitions Message 5782301 .
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