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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 246.42-0.4%Jan 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: Tom D who wrote (17578)9/19/1998 8:30:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
Well, all I am doing is wondering if the bears are giving sufficient weight to the
relationships. Eventually AMZN must generate profits. But before that will happen we
will have several years of a war of attrition which will demoralize and/or destroy
AMZN's competition. If it does not destroy AMZN first.


Tom,

I do not know what to say but welcome to thr thread again:-)

Actually, money be raised bby AMZN is now becoming debt which at some point must be paid. BKS and BGP may lose money in the online business but their brick and mortar stores are profitable except for the worst seasonal quarter. There is too much emphasis on retail buying on the net. I believe it will turn out that the net will be an excellent venue for company to company selling but will never capture a significant share of the retail buying market. If I am incorrect there, Amazon must still gobble up a good portion of the market share. Lots of variables and I will watch it play out and participate too.

Let's not talk about stock price because it has no correlation to known fundamentals. Let's look at fundamentals and how they have changed during the last 9 months for Amazon. Losses and projected losses have more than tripled. Debt went from $75 million to $500 million give or take. Marekting anf fulfillment as a percentage of sales is starting to increase again not decrease. I no longer can find an analyst with an earnings projection as far out as they go. This was not true in Jan 98. There were actually projections for a few cents a share profit in fiscal 99 or at worst, fiscal 2000.

Deterioration is occuring. Dohn Doer (sp) and Klinen Perkins, etc are in this for the money. They are selling shares from time to time. I suspect they will not be willing to raise any money of their own to help Amazon.

Just some thoughts.

Glenn
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