Z and all,
Some "kind" words for DD sector in this week's Barrons. Fortin [CEO of HTCH] quoted as saying that a $2.00 estimate for FY99 was "close". Predictions of sequentially better quarters in Sept and Dec, a dip in CYQ1 of 99, then a "real" upturn. Michael Cannon [CEO of Maxtor] also quoted. HTCH called "cheap" at 15, if all this pans out.
That's hardly the only cheap stock in the sector if it pans out. So my question to the thread: if this scenario is true, which stock[s] do you all think will appreciate the most percentagewise from these depressed levels till, say, next May? Some choices of major independent companies: SEG, QNTM, WDC, MXTR, HMTT, KMAG, RDRT, APM, HTCH, INVX, EXBT, EMC, MTIC, BXH, VECO, UTEK [the latter two are also plays on semis, but get enough revenues from drives to qualify, I think]. I'm sure I'm leaving out some, so add them as you will.
My initial guess without doing any real math yet: MTIC from about 5, HMTT from about 6. They both look like at least possible doubles from these depressed levels. HTCH too is attractive, if they do indeed make that $2, as are MXTR and QNTM, assuming that desktop ASPs actually return to more normal declines. And if QNTM truly delivers on SDLT.
Note that this is not a question about which are the "best" companies, it is a question of value at more or less current levels. |
