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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe

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To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (691)	9/19/1998 11:27:00 AM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (3) of 1301

I guess if MSNBC wrote the story it must be true, Kind of sounds like 1930's America. I wonder if that would have been a good time to buy stocks in America ?? Probably not, too much corruption, low standards of living, high unemployment. I think I better stick to safer stocks like Coke and Gillete. The RTS index is down over 90% from its peak. Yet the direction is still down according to all gurus. Even the oil companies are going down. But oil prices are going up and ruble costs are going down. The "experts" point to potential nationalization as the reason. Yet Russia is bending over backwards to improve the deal for foreign GKO holders. LUKOY is the best investment in the world right now IMHO. Its market capitalization is below the asset value of its tankers. They also have a little oil too. The U.S. financial titans have been playing the rest of the world as fools. Moodys and S&P downgrade countries now. Venzeuala was downgraded and boy were they mad. It is all about creating the chaos rather than predicting it. If you can get the currency diving and capital flight increasing, you bust the country and make easy money on the short side. The only thing that will stop this manipuation by U.S. financial titans is the inevitable recession in the U.S. due to the fallout from lower foreign currencies. As the U.S. market falls, the U.S. dollar will fall. Oil prices will go up as the dollar weakens. Look also for revenge of the emerging markets. OPEC has cut enough to create a supply shortage in the fourth quarter. There is a good chance that the emerging markets are not going to worry too much about reducing cutbacks as oil goes over $20 a barrel. They need to make up the money they have lost and wouldn't mind seeing the U.S. suffer. Growth is already slow in the U.S., factor in a doubling of oil prices and what do you get ??? Are you ready for the recession of 1999 ??? All this is IMHO of course !!

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