>>The other problem as an analyst once said, "their products are too good." The
reasoning on this is once it is in place, there is enough bandwidth for that fiber.<<
The *quality* of the installed fiber plant, and the *quality* of the
fiber that is now being installed has a marked effect on what can be
done in the wavelength multiplicity arena. Mother Nature plays a
fundamental role here. I don't know how to do the business model
of sheer fiber multiplicity vs. quality fiber, but suffice it to say,
the factors like Amplified Spontaneous Emission (ASE), Polarization
Dispersion and myriads of others, limit the effective use of a fiber
at higher rates (OC-192), and at tighter wavelength spacings. The
rule, gain*bandwidth=constant, is universal.
So, the advances in the state of the art require better fiber, like the NZ-DSF (LEAF) fiber from Corning, and similar from Lucent, and
maybe others. (NZ-DSF=NonZero Dispersion Shifted Fiber, a neat
innovation to allow tighter wavelength spacings and higher optical
power as is needed in DWDM, and the opening of other DWDM wavelength
bands). The newer carriers who are currently building (LVLT, Williams
and others) are installing NZ-DSF, an absolute necessity. I'm certain
they have done the business model, more-is-better vs. fewer-high-quality. I'd reserve the upwardly mobile options myself.
Back to CIEN-- They are right in the middle of innovation (but not
fiber--just the equipment that drives it). CIEN got screwed and they
don't deserve what happened to them. |
