TECHNICAL ANALYSIS;
For those of whom this article may be of interest.
Raptech referred to technical analysis during the last week and mentioned that he wasn't sure about some of it. To do a technical analysis one must look at several charts for different time periods, in order, to form a considered opinion.
Here I have checked 4 charts, 180 days daily, 1 year daily, 2 years weekly, and 2 years short interest. The combination gives a fairly accurate picture with which to make an assessment. My findings are as follows:
on the 180 day; The stock is sitting on it's 60 day moving average of 23 1/2 and just above it's Bollinger Band average of 21 3/4. Stochastic percentile is 82% or above the upper band of 80%. At this point the stock usually turns downward, short term. Also money flow is turning downward and relative strength is turning downward.
on the 1 year; Pretty much the same but the Stochastic percentile is changed from 14 days to 21 days and here it shows up in the 65% range and usually peaks at 90-95%. So, it hasn't yet, topped out.
2 year weekly; Here we see some sharp differences. The 60 day moving average is 25 1/2 the Bollinger Average is 23 so, the stock is sitting just below its Bollinger 21 day moving average of 23. Relative strength has turn up sharply but leveled off recently. Stochastic percentile is at 45% and peaked in August at 70% but has turned up sharply in the last 2 weeks. Money flow has turned upward. Weekly volume is average since the crash. About 11 million shares.
Short interest chart; This is a Zacks chart which shows relative short interest outstanding. Short interest shown is the lowest it has been in 2 years, the entire period covered here. This is significant because the short interest ratio for this stock is way below the market averages.
Conclusions: Short term, Seagate will probably stay in this area or turn downward however, medium term (6 mos.) it's a good bet that it will go quite a bit higher and long term ( 2 yrs.) is probably a very good bet. I hedge my conclusions by saying this is only technical analysis, nothing more and everything mentioned here is based on charts which are never the whole story. Nevertheless, sometimes it's useful.
PHOTMAN/WILLIAM EPSTEIN |
