Tom,
There is no doubt in my mind that things are bearish.
However, things were BULLISH before the market turned bearish. So being bearish isn't of itself, reason for bearishness to continue.
I won't address the FA stuff other than to say that from a historical standpoint, most of BOTH the FA stuff and TA stuff which was the basis for trading before BTD started, seems no longer applicable. And there is every reason to believe the Clinton tragedy will bring the markets down even further.
But having the right combination of scepticism, paranoia and faith that at least some of the TA stuff I have found to work in this environment leads me NOT to desperation, but to the believe that you CAN predict the course of the markets, however inaccurately, and profit by those forecasts.
Case in point: a week ago today, I came to the conclusion we were in for a strong 5% move up based on several indicators I hold dear. I posted my forecast and there were only one or two others that even could accept the forecast on this thread. Well from 7,600 the market raced ahead 400 points, 5% right on the money.
Now I am not suggesting I will be right again this week also. But my point is, we DID have a strong move up even though the FA was just as bad last week and VGY bearish as I suggested.
So my vote is STILL for a strong move up... maybe even to 8,200 or so before a pull-back.
Bill
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