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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble

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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (1678)	9/19/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (4) of 3339

JG - Yes, the trend is your friend and as long as we haven't broken the downtrendline off the peak we are in a bear phase. We have been in an uptrend since the mini-crash lows of September 1st and now I believe we have reversed off that trend. I've been drawing channel lines on the weekly spx chart off the start of this rally in late 12/94. The uptrend parallel channel has been violated on the mini-crash sept 1 lows and now has been retested (in coincident with all the other channel lines I explained in my post) This didn't happen for the same period last October. We touched the trendline and made a violent reversal up, which kept us in the bull trend. The head & shoulder pattern of last fall had a base of 900 and a peak of 983. The projection of that pattern would be 817, which coincidently was the peak of the february run-up. That H&S pattern didn't get fulfilled (855 low on 8/28) and from using some fibonacci and andrew's pitchfork trendlines, I believe that there is a possiblity that we will fulfill last fall projection on the coming break. If you wan't to look at a chart where this pattern has already been fulfilled, look at the CCI chart. It bottomed right at it's fall pattern projection point. This rally was a bear rally to get everyone complacent again and talking like the down trend was over. You may have noticed many analysts called the 8/4 break a capitulation bottom. Now they are calling the 9/1 break a capitulation bottom. This rally also closed the gap off the last peak so we could continue the bear phase. We are in the process of disapointment and denial. The goldilocks scenario of worldwide capitalism is brought about by the end of the cold war is now being laid to rest. We also hear a lot of talk about our economy being invincible - they also said that about Japan in the late 80's. This is a disinflationary Kondreiteif plauteau, very similar to the Reconstruction period after the Civil War, prior to the panic of 1873 (and also the Roaring 20's and the Era of Good Feelings in the early 1800's) In a Marke Twain rhyme, we are having impeachment proceedings as we did with Andrew Johnson during a similar cyclic period. bb

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