I think you are way too optimistic about tax revenues. They aren't
getting much, and they are printing roubles. There is no Tax payment
culture in Russia, I think a long time will pass until there will be.
Meanwhile, the government will have to rely on the oil sector.
Also, PTB is right about stealing - that was the way of life in old
communist Russia, and quite hard to get rid of now. I don't see signs
of economic stabilization yet, quite the opposite.
As for "revenge" of the emerging markets, so far, the
money flows back in the US treasuries, a fact which could even
lift overvalued US stocks. People hold on to "quality" companies
at 100 p/e, as if they are recession-proof. We'll see what happens,
but so far it does not look like overheating, rather deflation.
In other words, right now there is world-wide turmoil, which will
likely continue in the nearest future. Russian stocks are unlikely to
rise in this atmosphere. |
