Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 214.34

-2.7%

Jan 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: Clarksterh who wrote (6962)	9/19/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) of 10921

>> 1) Semiconductor parts are deflationary (true)<< No, actually it's false over the long term, but true in the short term. That's the problem. Historically, the cost per transistor has decreased (Moore's Law), but the cost per chip has not. (I already posted the data to this thread once, but can't seem to find the original post.) Chip average selling prices have decreased year-over-year only three times in the last 16 years: 1984-85: very serious equipment recession, drove several equipment companies out of business, drove most US companies out of the memory market, and led directly to the formation of Sematech 1989-1990: not as bad as 1985, but pretty painful. 1996-1998: more severe and more prolonged ASP drop than 1985, with the full effects yet to be seen. Katherine

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