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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 249.89+3.1%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (24440)9/20/1998 12:57:00 AM
From: Clarksterh  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Katherine - Ultracheap computers have lower margins. That has been stated as a fact by both the box makers and the chip makers, and the statement is supported by the recent financial results of these companies.

I am in no way disputing this, nor am I denying its impact on current equipment orders. But I am disputing that it ( lower priced PC's always cause lower margins) necessarily must be so. I think the current drop is computer prices is at least partly driven by over capacity, and hence there is a drop in margins as their always is in an over-capacity situation.

But, if the drop in prices occurs because no one needs the extra computing power, but instead they want an extra computer for their kids, or, ... then you could get a drop in price without an over-capacity problem with its attendent drop in margins. I think this is part of the pricing dynamics, but I'll admit I lack good data to back it up.

In other words, I could see (and in fact expect) a situation where 5 years from now the average computer will sell for $500 but the margins will be approximately the same as now because they are selling 3 times as many of them (one for the kitchen, ...), each only a little more powerful than todays top-of-the-line machine.

Clark
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