| |
Guy, The book was written by a journalist. But it serves more than entertainment. Much more as a matter of fact. It paints a vivid picture of greedy and fear. hey, we are human!
It's interesting to look into the reason why Livermore reached high but got wiped out several times. One key is the money management I believe. He was a swing trader as Jaime put it to position as close to the danger point as possible. At his time, information spread rate is still slow than today. By using MA crossover it was possible to make money. His way was very aggressive. He did go with trend as well. There are a lot of correct thing he did to reach high.
Today, many systems and an overflow of information is circulating. The effenciency of any methods decreases very rapidly. I don't look into RSI, ADX very seriously. I tend to ignore breakout as well unless it can sit there for a couple of days. I tend to buy high and sell higher, sell low and buy even lower. For AAPL right now, I tend to buy in 28-29 range. I still don't like its momentum although I have a bullish bias. I am playing "sell on rumor and buy on news", a typical Wallstreet wisdom is "buy on rumor and sell on news" Of course, it depends on what kind of news.
With respect to Apple, its success and failure is another example of greedy and fear. As a long time Apple users started with an Apple II, I have a high respect on Apple technology. Their management team is very greedy and try to maintain a fat margin forever. To achieve this end, we all know that they involved in many lawsuits against MS. These waste energies, of course, give MS and the whole industry a chance to catch up. They were afraid, came out with low-cost Macs in Oct. 1990. That move fueled a strong bull market of AAPL. But they were still half-hearted in licence, even declined help from a small swiss company to port their OS to IBM machines. They are still not open and want to CONTROL their OS as demonstrated their decline of the help from the swiss company (forgot the name). Now they are in fear again. market share is down; margin is down; brain drain etc. There will be still problems ahead. But the new CEO clearly put the worst thing in his first quarter. It's natural. I am expecting a better quarter ahead.
My concern is how patience the AAPL investors will be to wait for black inks in AAPL's quartly report? I was a loyal mac user, but I lost my confidence. Last year, I had a real hard time with my PB520 which constantly gave me a floppy drive problem. Iwas told by my dealer that the problem was not isolated. If i had shorted AAPL based on the fact of rotten product quality, I would have to have a steel-like mind to stand the rise of AAPl from 38 to 50. Right now, I have confidence on their future especially with their internet move, but I am very uncertain about the short term behavior of AAPL. This is what our interest is: to profit from the rise and fall of AAPL, right?
I am willling to listen to any side of opinion, especially bearish side.
Keep on pouring out some thoughts and we all can make some money. I am in support of an open forum with different opinions. A closed OS strategy like MacOS has lost its battle already with <10% market share. Should we repeat this error in investing our money? I don't want to flood this forum with all the bullish, rosy outlook on AAPL. But where are bears? I am concerned. I feel unconfortable with AAPL's momentum and I am especially concerned that no bear opinions I can read here. This is not a bottom if no bearish noise can be heared.
I am rambling. A scared bull |
|
