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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (28415)	9/20/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (2) of 94695

So far, I think the comparison to the final stages of the '90 bear remain intact. Just as in August-September '90, we have resistance at the trading low of the first day the market broke through previous support on the second leg down (wave 3 in Elliott). The overall chart patterns are very similar. August 27, 1998 NYA low was 517.00 SPX low was 1037.61 DJI actual low was 8164.96 If I had to use one index, the NYA is the most credible, and NYA closed at 518.05 Wednesday Indicators of various sorts have gotten close to being the bottom (relative to bear markets), but not quite yet. Therefore, I would expect at least one more retest of recent lows sometime relatively soon. It may very well be one more retest, because some of the oscillators are one stage ahead of the '90 situation. Using TC2000 over 200% MA figures as a reference, I would expect that +/- 20% would be a ceiling, short term, and that the final low might be in the +/- 10% area. Vitas

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