I think PAIR, like all the other xDSL specialists, is threatened by cable
Pass Pass,
I have a different view of this. Cable is the threat that will promote the RBOCs into pushing xDSL, which will be good for PAIR.
There are essentially 4 wires into a home: cable, telephone, electric and wireless wire (satellite).
Without the threat posed by cable, the RBOCs would be doing little to get off of the dime to find ways to use their existing telephone wire-tie into homes. In part due to the cable threat, the RBOCs finally are on the move (e.g., U.S. West with its new MegaBit DSL service).
Actually, I think that greater capacity (CIEN), in conjunction with greater ability to groom and switch data (ASND/NN to XYLN) will allow for lower cost to the consumer. Lower cost to the consumer will allow for greater penetration of DSL (PAIR); lower cost to the business user will allow for more T1 usage (HDSL, again PAIR); greater demand for phone lines for internet access generally also means more demand for PAIR products (those products that essentially split 1 twisted pair into multiple lines). In return, greater consumer/business demand caused by lower prices works its way back up the backbone and ultimately translates into greater fiber capacity demand (CIEN).
Gary Korn |
