Hi Three( am just practicing with this new (clean) Dell
keyboard here (G)
All:
The tone of the thread is generally that of Dell being a solid long term investment with some short
term uncertainties. The long term future looks as good as I have ever seen it, but the short term price
behavior has never been certain and will never be crystal clear because the valuation
is set by a consensus of the marketplace regardless of suspected manipulation which no doubt
occasionally happens.
If the market heads down and one plans to be in equities, there is no better place to be than Dell,
as has been demonstrated for the umteenth time during the past month, and the US market will come
back, always has, and always will..
For new Dell investors, if aiming to make a fast buck, the short term will always be a wrenching
experience. In the past 50 years I was never out to make a fast buck in the market,but hoped to
own a stock that beat the trend and the more the better. Its only in the last few years that it
has become obviously possible ( for the common investor) to make 'big money', with many stock
options available and low brokerage fees and more recently the availability of Leaps.
My attitudes toward Dell have changed over the years.
In 1993 I had 40 shares Dell, about 1/30 of my investments, with no aspirations or assumptions
End of year 80 shares (stock split) with cost of $900 and value of $2000
Attitude> Hm, gee I didn't lose, not like a solid CD at 9% paid each month, my friends all
buying Apples, talking about IBM. Dell kind of a lonely speculation. Sold 40 shares
End of 1994., 140 shrs with cost of $2500 and value of $6000
Attitude>. Well Dell not too bad, have paper profit exceeding most of my other holdings
But I have been working on AAR and WECO(now WEN) which used to pay 12% dividends.
Still nice to get dividends, but will buy a bit more Dell
My good neighbor Dan, is pushing Nichols Institute so I buy some of that.
End of 1995, 420 shares with cost of $4500 and value of $9000
Attitude>. Am making little progress with other stocks. Like Dean Witter gov bonds going down.
Still up on Dell, might buy some more.
End of 1996, 640 shares with cost of $18,500 and a of value of ( perhaps) $70,000.
Attitude> Well now Hmmmmmmmmmmmm WOW This stock seems to have some potential.
Can't really pin it down, still don't know the company but it's the most shares of anything I ever
owned before. Maybe I'll just try to exceed that 640 shares of AAR I used to own.
No thought of making $100K, much less $1 mil, impossible to even think in those terms.
Just hoped to heck it would not all vanish on me.
Today those 640 shares would be 5120, cost of $18 k, with a value of around $300k.
(will omit data since Dec 1996)
The two points I wish to make are:
1. It takes time for our investment attitudes to change,(in my case many years) to back away
from past experiences, dividend income, guaranteed capital(bonds, CDs) and venture into
the tech stock field. So one has to actually own Dell for a while to get a feel for it and a bit of
confidence. Three months of erratic price is meaningless.
2. Although I hesitate to say this, ANY equities are a risk ( check recent bank stocks etc)
But I have great faith in the future of the silicon world, the Web, the communications
industry.
There is a lot more involved in making $1 mil in Dell beginning today than buying 200 shares
or 2000 shares. The far bigger problem is faith enough to keep from selling it in the hard times
or resisting the roaring momentum stocks like mspg, yhoo, or amzn(hehe).
My suggestion would be to start today, buy some shares, keep adding shares and keep
comparing results to other stock holdings( its unfair to use yhoo, Aol)(hahaha). Try BA, BAC,
rdtrt, seg, even hd. At the Nov Dell earnings time , should be in the black with another great past
performance looking forward to a great future. Alternately, buy Leaps.
Options players have their own techniques so this no help to them I guess.
Good luck
Sig. |
