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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII)
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To: Steven Bowen who wrote (8308)9/20/1998 6:38:00 PM
From: limtex  Read Replies (4) of 12468
 
Steve, Ali and all -

It seems to me now that what are about to receive is either going to be very bad or just a larger than usual correction.

If it turns out to be the very bad kind then it looks very likely to be the worst in history and of course that means wholesale bank failures across the US and Europe. In such circumstances no other investment will porvide any better security since all will be useless. It follows that public order will break down to a greater of lesser extent.

Now I'm not saying that we're going to get the bad kind only what will happen if this continues for a third and much worse month namely October.

I and for that matter none of us so far as I know have any knowledge of any 'concerted' action which hopefull is even now being planned by the G7 central banks or of other moves that may be planned bu erphaps the Fed to try to prevent the worst crash in history. But those are the only things that will stop the train that we are now on which I think we all now realize has left the station and is gathering steam.

So if we accept the assumption that this is likley to be one of the worst crashes in history then so what if we hold WCII for a bit longer.

The bet is now quite reasonable.

Now WCII is going to have a good Q to be announced in a few weeks ( anyone got the date?) and then we are in to 1999 and that is the year when we go postive at least on EBITDA. Also most of the major Telco stocks in the US and EU are holding up quite well and we have only US based revenues. Not a cent for Asia thank goodness ( sorry for being ungrateful to the Asian economies) anyway WCII doesn't need to worry about those guys and we're not going to have a profit warning because of it. And every day more lines and more customers and increasing in value. If the market really tanks and the WCI stock with it then:

1. Either Bill gets scared and sells but not for peanuts

or

2. Bill doesn't get scared and still carries on and refuses to sell.

either option it seems we will do OK and in the meantime the pressure from buyers is going to increase. There simply aren't a whole bunch of Winstars out there to buy.

So WCII come hell or high!!!

Regards,

L
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