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Politics : Clinton -- doomed & wagging, Japan collapses, Y2K bug, etc
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To: Bill Grant who wrote (400)9/20/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: SOROS  Read Replies (1) of 1151
 
From Dr. Ed Yardeni:

In my opinion, the global economy is slipping into a recession. This is confirmed by falling commodity prices. The recession could become a depression, i.e., a recession which does not respond to easy monetary policy.

By this definition, Japan is in a depression with the bond yield there recently falling under 1% and an overnight rate of 0.25%. Indeed, Japan is the epicenter of global deflation and could cause a global depression much as the US did so in the 1930s when we passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff during June 1930.

Today's global-commerce-killer is the collapse of Japan's banking system, which is causing a deadly global credit crunch.

Japan's depression is likely to push US and Europe into recessions late next year.
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