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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 204.03

+1.9%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Daniel G. DeBusschere who wrote (3288)	9/21/1998 5:58:00 AM
From: Asymmetric	Read Replies (4) of 12623

Daniel, <<For example, if a carrier wants more bandwidth, can the carrier get it by increasing the basic speed (i.e. OC-48 to OC-192) or is the carrier "forced" to install DWDM?>> You ask a good question, ie how does a company decide whether to upgrade from an OC-48 to either DWDM or go the OC-192 route?...and unfortunately it is one I don't have an answer to. My position is one more of network management of the stuff after it's put in, rather than trying to design the system...and hence deciding between alternative technological/financial solutions and approaches. Also since we ourselves have neither OC-192 or DWDM systems installed at this point in time there's no one to talk to here about how such a decision was arrived at. (Please remember that the OC-192 system that was installed was done so by another company on dark fiber we leased out.) I hope anyone else out there with insight maybe could address the above question???? <<Is there a restrictive market or is there a compelling market opportunity for DWDM (and CIENA)? I guess that's the $24 dollar question. I obviously thought yes otherwise I would have never have bought stock in Ciena. While I still think the market opportunity for DWDM is potentially explosive, I frankly am confused by the events of the last month or so with Ciena. I usually try to picture what I think is going to happen with a company/stock over the long, and short term, and also try to picture what might go wrong (ie my possible downside risk) before I take on stock in any particular company. What went wrong with the merger & Ciena, was far beyond any thing that I thought/could imagine might happen. I'm still holding my stock and reassessing everything...and probably won't act until I'm convinced of the wisdom of either selling, or adding more stock at this admittedly low price. I mean most the damage is already done (at least I sincerely hope so! The stock is already down almost 90% from it's high of only three months ago. If that's not crashing and burning then I dont' know what is.) Anyway I'm back to square one so to speak. How about you?

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