Here is an article from Multichannel news on VOD rollout. It trumpets the same theme that some investors and industry critics (as well as CCUR critics) have voiced both in 1995 and now. The bottom line they say is "we here about VOD announcements, but where are the contracts, where are the working systems and who will be the winners". When an industry publication takes this stance, you know that the first company (s) to announce a "deal" or "contract" to roll out a system will get mucho attention from the industry. They could only site the Diva trials as a working system with good take on thier offerings. Earlier trials were to test the techology or prove that there was a market for digital services such as VOD.
This article is ill timed. Time Warner is ready to deploy VOD to several markets on a commercial basis next year and to at least two on a ramp up basis by year end. These articles keep calling these initial roll-outs "trials". I agree they are trials, but there purpose and goals are different from the trials of the past 4 years. These trials are to perfect the commercial delivery of the systems, test the most economic and reliable configuration and weed out any potential or unexpected glitches before commercial deployment.
As for the "show me the money" opinion. I think that is the number one reason we are not seeing any real acitivity in these stocks. 6 months ago, there were many skeptics that CCUR had a real product or would even be in this game. Now they need to prove they can get ink on deals with number signs attached. Diva was the most watched VOD operator and they still don't have any definative deals. As we all know, the CCUR/SEAC/SFA team will rain on their marketing parade if they choose to create a high profile of the initial success or deployments in Austin and other markets. With Echostar and Direct TV agressively promoting their channel capacity and VOD offerings, the cable industry is eager to send the message that "we are about to deploy a system and service that will make you regret your investment in satellite based TV". I didn't make that up. That was the direct statement of both Comcast and Time Warner at the Kagan moderated panel.
The article mentions some names that will be new to some of you. Repaly TV and Tivo. Tivo has been working on projects with GIC. Each has its drawbacks or limitations. I do not consider their products or services to be direct competition to CCUR or SEAC. I am starting to think that these companies pay to get mentioned in these articles. Bottom line, the past 3 years have yielded 100's of announcements about promising technologies for the internet in both tools, browsers, etc. Only a handful have become major players. The key was who their partners were and which companies embraced their technology.
There is a lot of hot air flying in VOD land right now, but how many companies have a deal with SFA, the leader in digital systems and deployment and the Cablelabs selected systems integrator for the industry standards? How many have been able to demonstrate a working product to industry executives and engineers? How many are so confident that they publish detailed explanations of their techology on their web site? How many will disclose their "true" cost per stream? How many have a relationship with the only group (Prasara) that has actually run a full service digital network?
The answers all tell me to buy CCUR. That is what I have done. The media is forcing Cables hand in this VOD rollout. They are starting to compare today to 1995 again. This pressure is sure to prompt cable companies such as Time Warner and Mediaone into press releases on their Digital plans. They cannot afford to have customers switch to RCN or Echostar because the media is saying that this is a pipe dream again. Good luck and check out this link from Multichannels news on VOD. multichannel.com |
