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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 285.43

-2.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Trey McAtee who wrote (38769)	9/21/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (3) of 53903

Sorry to interrupt. I'm sure that MU is in an uptrend for very good reasons. Still, as someone who was saved not shorting MU only because everyone was calling for Dow 7400 last week, I have a few questions: (1) how can the memory prices be going up and the PC industry be in very good shape when the Seagate CEO last week said there is no end of their plight in sight? (2) how can the semiconductor industry be bottoming out when AMAT CEO said ~10 days ago that demand is still falling and there is no end in sight? (3) how can the semiconductor industry be bottoming out when even the equipment makers whose products is design driven (not production driven) like PLAB and DPMI are hurting. Doesn't this mean that its so bad that even the sacred cow (R&D) is being sacrificed? (4) If memory prices do firm up, what is to prevent the reopening of the closed out fabs and push the prices down again? (5) If the reports that I've read are correct and there are some 26 memory makers in the world but we need only 5 of them, does it not make sense that only the 5 financially strongest will survive and the rest will go out of business? Is Micron one of those 5? (6) I've heard that the older fabs will be closing because they are not cost efficient anymore. Doesn't this mean that the same technology that makes those fabs cost inefficient, also increases the production capacity exponentially? (7) Where is Micron's break even point and how long at current DRAM prices can it survive? (8) Is Micron up to date on their technology or did the down turn prevent them from investing in leading edge technology? It is not that I'm wishing for Micron to go down. I have no positions on it one way or another. It's just that before I take a position I'm contemplating (in this case short) I try to get people to talk me out of it. I know that most people here are very active traders who probably don't care much for the longer term fundamentals, but my trading time horizon is never less than 2 months. So I'd appreciate any light you can shed on above. Best Regards, Sun Tzu

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