Hold your horses. Let me give you a scenario that although it seems to me highly unlikely -- considering the current negativity about CIEN -- is not entirely impossible:
1.ASND bids for CIEN at $15.
2. CSCO say's "NO WAY JOSE -- CIENA's mine. You go with Pirelli.
Ciena, will you marry me for a stock swap of $24? That may seem not so high, but remember, you get my stock and my franchise, which means that in the long run, you have everything to gain and your shareholders will not be disappointed."
3. ASND -- realizing it can't buy Pirelli -- ups the ante at $27.
4. TLAB wakes up, realizes it can't afford to lose CIEN after all -- re-offers to buy CIEN at $ 33.
5. LU -- who hates all four --(ASND, CSCO,TLAB and CIEN, assuming any rumored merger with ASND or CSCO is no longer in the cards) -- decides it hates CIEN less than the three and that it(CIEN) is affordable enough for it(LU)to buy. So just to guarantee that ASND, CSCO and TLAB will never compete with it in the WDM space, LU offers to buy CIEN for $35 per share.
6. All this time, CIEN -- on its own -- is making good on Nettle's recent motto to "underpromise and overdeliver;" and has been, without much ado, quietly winning smaller but more stable contracts, spreading its risks with a larger customer base of telcos. Subsequently, its operating results(though not as good as the glory days of the past), are actually not nearly as bad as Wall Street's currently very pessimistic estimates. And this herd of lemmings called "analysts" -- not wanting to be left behind in case of a real turnaround -- start increasing their estimates and defending any upgrades with convincing argument in favor of CIEN's prospects.
All of a sudden, CIEN is once more -- very possibly -- a $40 per share stock.
So Bald Man from Mars, if you decide to sell your CIEN now -- in order for you not to have seller's regret,make sure you are doing it because any potential upside is so unlikely from your perspective, and even if it happened is less important to you than protecting whatever capital you have left or don't have left in the near term.
No matter how good CIEN can potentially bounce back, if you can't stomach the downside -- however limited from these levels -- that it may first potentially go even lower than current price -- then you should sell. If you're on margin and get a call, you don't have a choice. But if you're not on margin, you do have a choice to hold and sell only if you have better use for your cash.
Whether you sell or hold, it must be something that you can reason out to yourself, as the right thing to do for your situation.
This isn't easy by any means. But you've got to be strong for us here at SI. It's not fun without you. |
