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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 200.18

+2.0%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: MThree who wrote (3422)	9/21/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: Bob Smith	Read Replies (3) of 12623

A scenario that we may see play out...... #1) CIEN's main objective right now - INCREASE SHAREHOLDER VALUE. This means you will see victorious news coming out to bolst the share price. CIEN will make sure they play the PR game bigtime. Timeframe - 2 weeks #2) Now you have a share price in the $15-16 range based on positive customer sales and comments....and the ever pressing presence of LU acquiring a networking partner which will accelerate all merger activity ( especially CSCO). #3) With a share price recovered...John Chambers can go to the board and justify a 100% premium based on his need to maintain market share from LU. CSCO needs a fiber optic solution for their netwroking products very badly. They need to protect $8B in revenue...quite a compelling case. Easily justifying a $30+ share price. Time Frame: Once LU makes their move ...Ascend or CSCO makes their play. Now if CSCO makes a .5 share offer...it allows shareholders to ride up with CSCO once this hidious market recovers. I'm guessing 4-6 weeks...so hold tight. CSCO has discussed price with CIEN already ..or was that Asend who was "Company A" in the TLAB/CIEN Merger Proxy..? CSCO does like silicon valley firms...but the big clock is ticking ...and they need to integrate DWM into their products. Heck...CIEN is a solid R&D play for NT, ASCEND, or CSCO. Comments?

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