Problems with your scenario:
1) CIEN may well start "shipping" PR in quantity. However, with its continued weakness today, in a very strong turnaround market, it indicates the bottom has not been reached. At this point, any attempted rally, is met with continued selling. This will limit any upside movement, probably well beyond the next two weeks. After the bottom of 9-10 is reached, maybe, expect a small bounce to the 11-12 range. Forget about 15-16 in the short term.
2) CIEN has already indicated that 4Q will see both a revenue decrease, and just a narrow profit, perhaps even a loss. This means that we are looking at a minimum of 3 months (next Q conference call) before we might see even the first indication of a turnaround by the company. They have indicated they intend to "underpromise and over deliver". This will limit any overly positive forward looking statements in the near term.
3) CIEN is damaged goods right now, and Chambers will not overpay for damaged goods. If, and that's a big if, CSCO decides it can't live without control over a DWDM product, then he may offer 18-20 max. More likely, he just continues to cultivate an already good relationship, and not have to deal with the business issues of turning around a struggling company.
4) Whoever was Company A is damn glad they remained Company A rather than a named company. At this point Nettles still thinks his company is worth much more than the market thinks. Its not likely that he can actively shop the company without seeming desperate. And its also not likely that he would even accept 20-30 (which he will never get) from a suitor like CSCO or ASND, without first trying to turn the company on his own. |
