Patrick:
Here's the reason the semi-equips fell (0.60 - that is
an ay caramaba type number - but no surprise!):
Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Falls in August
Mountain View, California, Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The book- to-bill ratio for North American semiconductor-equipment makers, a closely watched gauge of the industry's health, fell to 0.60 in August, as orders for machines used to make chips plummeted.
A book-to-bill ratio of 0.60 means that chip-equipment makers received $60 of orders for every $100 of products shipped that month. The revised ratio was 0.66 in July, according to Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International, the Mountain View, California, group that reports the ratio.
Chip-equipment makers such as Applied Materials Inc. and KLA- Tencor Corp. have been hurt by the economic crisis in Asia and overall weak demand for semiconductors, which has resulted in lower sales and profit. Companies like Intel Corp. and Micron Technology Inc. that make chips for computers are ordering fewer machines as they delay new plants in the face of declining sales.
''While the equipment market should see a leveling, the prospects for recovery still appear to be at least 12 months off,'' Dick Greene, an analyst at Semiconductor Equipment, said in the report.
A year ago, the August ratio was 1.07. A ratio below 1.00 usually indicates a contracting market as shipments exceed new bookings.
The average of monthly orders, or bookings, for chipmaking equipment in the three months ended in August fell to $632 million, down 15 percent from July and 56 percent a year ago. Shipments, or billings, fell to $1.06 billion, down 5 percent from July and down 21 percent from August 1997.
The book-to-bill ratio for July was revised to 0.66 from 0.69 and indicated a decrease in orders from June, when the ratio was 0.74.
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(Dick Greene in an earlier report a few months ago when the BTB was at 0.82 said that the bottom was in place - I laughed at that! <g> -
these semi-equip companies can send their employees home for a few months - there will be no work for awhile)
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(To put the average of 632 million in bookings in perspective, 632 * 12 is 7,584 for the entire year. I would guess that North American
suppliers account for somewhere between 40-60% of total equip. makers
worldwide revenue. Let's say that it is 50%. Then the 7,584 for N.American suppliers would mean about 15 billion worldwide. Though
there is seasonality here this is a monstrous drop in capital spending
... and in case anyone forgot bodes well for the chip companies <g>)
Shane. |
