As skeeter continually points out, no one else is as dependant on DRAM as MU. To be sure some such as Samsung and LG consider it of paramount importance, but they do have other businesses. I agree that NEC certainly has the money to play this game as long as they like. Certainly the Tiawanese are in good shape financially as well and have mostly brand new equipment. Samsung is probably OK too, but I do not think they are as strong as the Tiawanese or NEC. I think that Samsung also have the best equipment among the Koreans. Hyundai and LG are not in good shape in my opinion, however, ergo the attempts at a shotgun marriage. They are the two that I think have the cost problems and funding constraints.
I have not taken changes in interest rates into account. MB has though, no doubt. Interest costs are among the problems in the area of fixed costs that he points out.
My theory regarding Y2K is different than yours, though both are plausible. Mine is that for the last two years corporate MIS budgets have been slanted towards software. This is because for software fixes it is hard to predict costs and time frames, so it is best to start early. I think that many 486 and older computers will be replaced next year however as corporate budgets shift to fix hardware Y2K issues (BIOS). Also most small businesses have not addressed Y2K yet, nor have home users. For both the fix is easy and painless except for a slight thinning of the wallet - replace that old PC with a new one, and maybe get a few upgrades of software.
Thus I believe that part of the current semi slowdown is caused by a Y2K shift in budgets to software, but that 1999 will be an excellent year for PC sales as corporate buyers, small businesses, and home users all replace older machines en masse before 2000 gets here. Note that I am further projecting that the following year will be unusually bad as very few old computers are left in service that need replacing. But time will tell.
As for calling MU to get answers, you could try, but I don't think it would help. No doubt they have their own opinions as to the strength of their competition and where prices are headed, but their projections are only guesses, as ours are. In any case they wouldn't want to give away to the competition what they are thinking or what their break even point is at any given point in time.
Good luck, and thanks for the compliment,
Carl
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