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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 194.70

+9.2%

Nov 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: gbh who wrote (3437)	9/22/1998 8:03:00 AM
From: Bob Smith	Read Replies (2) of 12623

GBH....You see the glass "half empty. There are a few ways to increase "shareholder value"...Nettles new mantra. 1) Stock buyback...excellent investment. Considering they are "in play". 2) NEWS..Now that the WoldCom/MCI merger is completed. Worldcom can start buying again (from multiple vendors...CIEN being one of them). But I have a very strong feeling that CSCO and others will not wait for the stock to rise dramatically to make an offer....that would be "unwise" of Chamber. Chamber and Nettles have cooperated in the past. My guess is Nettle says "YES"...but links it to the share of CSCO's stock price..say .5 (or whatever). This way CIEN shareholders can rise with CSCO. To think that CSCO is going to sit and watch LU's Bell Lab's integrate DWM technology into next years networking products is quite naive. CSCO is not going to jeopardize their future (let alone their $B's in market cap) by not captilizing on this situation. CSCO could by Pirelli...but they need market share and a sales channel to the RBOC's & ISP's to compete against LU. And if it's not CSCO...then it will be ASND or NT or somebody else. CIEN revenue stream is modest compare to CSCO's $8B/yr. CIEN is damaged goods...because it has been damaged....mainly by those who didn't want to see a powerful TLAB/CIEN. So I suggest you short....for three months. But I guess you & others will be the first ones to "change your tune" when the news comes out. Get a clue.

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