EZbeliever : My main gold holding is AngloGold --- I think now AU on NYSE, formerly AGOLY. Then, Gencor, which doesn't trade in the US, which is today really Goldfields. Finally, Harmony and Avgold are my "second liners". I don't think Avgold trades in the US.
My concern with Randgold is not only that it isn't going up but, in a relative strength situation, is lagging well behind the others. In my opinion, since at the best of times one only has partial information about what's going on, I regard stockmarket movements (over time) as very important in deciding how one should appraise an investment.
Too many times, by doing my homework or so I believed, I thought I had found a winner which nobody else seemed to know about because it was lagging the field. Only later, I found that nobody wanted to know about it. And, then I found out the reason why it was lagging.
The "market" is very perceptive and (nearly) always anticipates what will happen. A rising share price usually means expected profit increases etc. And the converse. The difficulty is reading the price movements correctly.
PS. Although I am a cynic I am also conscious that, in the market, there is always a buyer and a seller. The market isn't a one-way street. Too often, because of imperfect or wrongly assessed information, one finds oneself doing the wrong thing. One actually has to wear both hats to correctly assess a situation. Even then, it's not easy. In fact, for me, it's always damn hard. |
