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Technology Stocks : CDMA, Globalstar versus Iridium, Inmarsat, etc.

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (50)12/22/1996 8:51:00 PM
From: D. Deans   of 381
 
Maurice (and other interested members of this message thread):

I offer the following clarifications to correct some misinformation
(or misunderstandings) relative to this debate.

There is no known delay issue with the Iridium scenario, relative to Globalstar. Iridium has a lower earth orbit than Globalstar, plus the satellite to satellite communication is a plus, not a minus (consider alternative network routing due to traffic demands or failed circuits in the Glabalstar scenario).

The Iridium scenario isn't grossly more expensive than Globalstar when you consider the total cost of the infrastructure required (just ask Globalstar to quantify the huge investment they will require in significantly more gateway earth stations, compared to Iridium).

Both the Iridium and Globalstar infrastuctures are narrowband technology. In contrast, Teledesic and M-Star (Motorola's recently announced satellite system) are broadband technology. Put simply, Iridium and Globalstar are attempting to be the first truly global phone company on the planet (dial-tone for anyone...anytime ...anywhere). Teledesic and M-Star will be like internet backbones in the sky (a carrier's carrier, providing high bandwidth on demand...
to anywhere on the planet). Translation: these two basic scenarios won't compete, period. They're are complementary.

I choose not to respond to some of the other issues previously raised, simply because there were way too many moot points. Bottom line, don't let the current lack of public investment opportunities in Iridium sway your good judgement. The Mobile Satellite Service (MSS) market won't be a cakewalk for any of the players. Anyone who puts all bets on Globalstar at this point would have to be a bloody fool. Here's why.

In reality, the technology (CDMA etc.) will be a relatively small piece of the business equation of running a successful global wireless communications carrier. If you want to really make an intelligent decision, ask who are the marketing leaders in these companies, and what are their industry track records.

Marketing...that's where the real MSS battles will be won, and lost.

David Deans
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