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Microcap & Penny Stocks : TSIS: WHAT IS GOING ON?

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To: BarbaraT who wrote (3809)9/22/1998 6:47:00 PM
From: jmt  Read Replies (2) of 6931
 
I was great hearing from everyone, and a good opportunity for what was close to a one on one with Don.

Many good things potentially happening, if they can deliver signed customers.

We were close on out revenue projections, ending the July 1999 quarter at about $1.5M. Assuming continued growth, that would put the calender year end quarter at about $1.75M to $2M, in line with Don's projection of $7M to $8M.

THe tricky part is expenses. Gross margins are clear, but G&A will increase.

Tax loss carryforwards will be used up in 2 to 3 years, which gives time for revenues and earnings to ramp up before the 40% tax hit.

My take on the share buyback is it will not be significant in the near term. It will be a year before they generate enough cash to have that luxury. Maybe a small buyback at this price, a few hundred thousand shares.

But I have to be honest. Price projections of $7 to $8 per share are ridiculous. Given a PE of 15X, the company would require NET INCOME of $15M, which would mean before tax income of $25M. And they are talking now of Revenues only reaching $8M more than one year out. Even at current margins they would need revenues close to $50M to achieve this. I therefore quite frankly see these projections as misleading and irresponsible.

Now lets get down to business.

jmt

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