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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology

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To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (313)	9/22/1998 7:14:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (1) of 4691

<<This thread is far too stodgy to even admit that a phenomenon like Dell can be genuine. People here seem too steeped in "margin of safety" dogma, I'm afraid. Sometimes you have to rock and roll. On the Dell thread we dont' need no stinking 12% returns. We are used to 45% at a minimum.>> I never said Dell is not a great company. I have only argued that it is overvalued and does not have the track record to demonstrate Buffett predictability. But after this little gem from you, I reiterate what I said before. Let me know when you sell your whole portfolio in disgust, and that will be my buy signal. Earth to Investor: The historical long term return on the stock market is about 9%, half of that in dividends. AND WITH LOWER INTEREST RATES, THAT EXPECTED RETURN SHOULD BE LESS, NOT MORE, UNLESS INTEREST RATES CONTINUE TO FALL. Warren Buffett himself has amassed his fortune by earning 20% returns year after year. And you're used to 45% at a minimum? Do you understand what you are saying? You could not have told me more clearly if you tried that we are still looking at a speculative peak which has a long way to fall.

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