Polarbear : Re Randgold
I think, by now and over many posts, I have defined my position clearly. And, I can certainly understand why you are upset with me for doing so. Please believe me, it was not my intention to upset you. My position is purely academic --- clearly, you are intellectually, emotionally and financially involved. As, I presume, are many others here. My position is simply to present another opinion --- and not a very important one at that. All the same, I notice that some are disappointed in the performance of the share and, in the circumstances, my opinion is therefore relevant.
My opinion about the share is, despite your attempt at refutation, largely still valid. In fact, much of what you have said actually confirms my views:
(1) The poor relative strength of the shares in the market (You did not address)
(2) "... most of these mines are not yet at production stage so estimates of costs and profitability etc are no more than that --- estimates" (You accept)
(3) "I'm not sure what arrangements are in the pipeline for share swaps and mergers etc and who will benefit from these" (You did not address)
(4) "It is impossible for anyone, other than those directly in the company, to really know what any of these properties are worth (You appear to agree with by suggesting I contact certain directors)
(5) "....so it is likely that one's investment is not, and certainly will not be, what one thinks it is" (You did not address)
(6) "....for me, there are too many imponderables"
(7) "....too much reliance on the directors is required for whatever "fortunes" the shareholders might receive" (Possibly, same as 5)
I fully agree with you that I do not know all the details about every property owned or developed by Randgold. In fact, I know very few details. But, nor do I know the full details about any investment which I make --- mining or otherwise. As I said earlier, the investor makes his decision on the basis of partial information. And, very frequently that decision is wrong --- certainly in my own experience.
Nevertheless, details which are most important are those concerning past profits. To ME, the historic profit/dividend history is a relevant guideline to present and future performance. That is why I like to invest in an mine which is fully operational and where the imponderables of stope width, production rate, extraction rate, milling, supplies, marketing, labor, transport, environment, management, State interference etc have already been overcome. As you know, Randgold has no profit history. Therefore this aspect falls away completely and the investor has to has to make up his own mind about these variables. Simply talking only about borehole values and POG and feasibility studies does not address these issues (for me).
Your concluding paragraph warrants a comment : "Please don't take offense to this and I look forward to you keeping up your "poo-poo" routine. With every effort you make to discredit RANDGOLD, I become more bullish, as I've yet to see anything we RANGY shareholders are overlooking. But as long as my portfolio contains RANGY, I'll continue to read your posts."
(1) I am not keeping up a "poo poo" routine, as you call it. Although my criticism is largely subjective, I attempt to be objective and present valid points of criticism
(2) I am not attempting to discredit Randgold --- merely attempting to justify the poor performance of the shares in the market and the uncertain prospects for the shares, as I see it
(3) If you, and other shareholders, are satisfied with your investment and its performance, then so be it. As I mentioned previously, I have no financial involvement --- long or short
(4) I presume, since your portfolio contains RANGY, that you will continue to read my posts. Thank you.
Finally, as a South African, I feel justified in participation in a thread titled South African Mining even though it seems the purpose of the thread is just to highlight the apparent merits of Randgold and its interests --- past or present. And, other than that, very little about South African mining is actually discussed.
I am, therefore, glad you feel I am a valuable member of the group. |
