Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 262.79

-1.0%

11:57 AM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (24555)	9/23/1998 9:07:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Katherine, I am beginning to think that Semi eq and the semi industries are inversely related. When semi eq are hot, a chip glut will soon follow. This in turn will send the semi eq companies down as over supply runs its course. The larger the glut, the longer the cycle. This cycle is compounded by a global recession. Looking ahead, the question should be how high the semi eq companies will bounce when the industry recovers. What is the demand and what would be the optimal number of fabs and foundries? Would it be too difficult to estimate the aggregate dollar value of new and improved industry XXX years from now? Is it realistic that AMAT could be a $10 billion company under these new estimates? What percentage of the industry would that be? What would be the capacity level if the industry poured in this level of cap improvements and how much of a glut would it be creating, sending the semi industry right back down to the over supply cycle again? Ramsey

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