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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 35.53-1.1%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: John Koligman who wrote (65259)9/23/1998 10:44:00 AM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (3) of 186894
 
John,

Intels price would have been in the $160+ range if AMD was not around. Another 4M pcs/qtr and at least another 1Bn/qtr in net profit due to higher ASP's.

AMD ships quality silicon as do all major semiconductor manufacturers including Intel.

AMD has been a day late and a dollar short in fielding competitive CPU's since the good ole 486 days (when it captured 50% of the market).

However they are catching up with the Nexgen design team. The K6 was good, the k6-2 with 3d is very good. By all accounts the k7 will kick ass with anything that intel has preannounced.

In Q4 once the 400Mhz chips some out they will be one speed grade behind Intel.

It IS VERY CLEAR that when AMD has a competitve (at speed CPU) Intel can no longer get high margins.

AMD's K7 design, architecture and die size all look great vs Intel. The big question will be their ability to ship in high volumes and ability to deliver performance in the 400-600 Mhz range.

If they can do this Intels stock price will be less than half of what it is now.

There are lots of people who think that Intel's success is pre-ordained like Paul and just keep praying that AMD will go away. In fact AMD will be close to profitable this quarter and will be profitable in Q4. In fact the Dresden fab is coming on and by mid year 99 AMD will have doubled it's CPU capacity to 10M cpu's per quarter.

If you dislike AMD and like Intel, I suspect that Q1-2 99 may be a good time to pick up Intel at lower prices but I agree their long term future is assured with Merced.
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