Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 269.55

+0.3%

Dec 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (24559)	9/23/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Katherine, trying to play with numbers again. Let us assume that AMAT reached their goal of $10b rev a few years from now. Let us further assume that AMAT corners 20% of the semi eq sector. That would imply a $50b industry. If an average fab is $2B, that means 25 fab per year. OK, not all orders go into a new fab, how about just half, or 12.5 new fabs per year. How many years at the pace of 12.5 fabs/yr would we have the mother of all gluts again? Ramsey

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