Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 267.87

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Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (24568)	9/23/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Ramsey - How many years at the pace of 12.5 fabs/yr would we have the mother of all gluts again? Hey, yet another way for us blind men to look at the elephant. But why is it that 12.5 fabs per year will ever lead to a glut? I have no doubt that yet another glut will occur, but maybe it will take 30 fabs a year? Just trying to look at the glass as half-full instead of half-empty. Clark PS A confounding factor is that fabs have limited life, even when upgraded. The best I can tell is that the equipment in a fab (including the facility itself) has a limited life of between 5 and 10 years. It is quite conceivable that there are only 125 fabs in the world, so 12.5 die per year and need to be replaced.

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