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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (3539)9/23/1998 6:35:00 PM
From: gregor  Read Replies (1) of 5676
 
GZ : What is your interpretation of the VIX index.

quote.yahoo.com^VIX&d=5ym

Obviously there was a lot of complacency in August when the market was topping out but since then the index is resting at a five year high, signaling a lot of implied volatility in the market, I'll repeat , a lot !

Specifically you were referring to the Dow. What I feel the implied volatility implies is that there is a great amount of sector rotation going on right now, a great deal of skittish money being invested with very short term horizons of two or three weeks much less two or three months. For years we have been spoiled by outlandish returns and are now told that these returns are a thing of the past. This signals more volatility more sector rotation and more indecision with less propensity to stay the course when the market is gyrating.

For these reasons I have to admit I think you are way off base for the Dow, specifically. I'm looking for a trading range on the Dow of 8350 to 7800 through years end with a testing of 7800 b/4 Oct ends.

Personally I am laughing my way to the bank over the returns I have had the past two weeks in Em Mkt bonds and REIT's, I am now 60 % invested and was 5% invested as of two weeks ago. But this is a gift IMO that I will be compelled to take off the table within a few weeks if they keep up the meteoric pace they have set this week.

For the sake of healthy discussion if you are right then I will not make the returns I could have; but if I am right I'll still do fine.

Thanks again.gregor
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