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To: donald sew who wrote (53666)	9/23/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (5) of 58727

FAVORS tonight: Jerry Favors Analysis - Wednesday, September 23, 1998 8 p.m. Last evening we stated that given the Trin-5 reading above 6.00 the odds were high that we would see some further rally. As we stated normally the only time an extreme Trin-5 reading above 6.00 will not lead to some sort of rally is if you are in the midst of a crash or mini-crash. So unless the Dow was beginning a crash immediately the Dow should see some sort of rally in this time frame. The Dow closed up 257 points today at 8154.41. As we stated the Trin-5 is one of our favorite short term indicators. It is simply a 5 day moving sum of the closing trading index readings. Interestingly the Trin-5 closed at 6.22,which is still a strong oversold reading. But the takeaway value tomorrow is 1.79,so unless the Dow closes down very strongly along with a closing Trading Index reading greater than 1.79 the Trin -5 will begin moving lower,out of oversold territory. It should now be clear whether the Bradley forecast or the short term cycles was correct in this time frame. The Bradley called for a low near September 21 plus or minus 2 days and a rally into September 28 plus or minus 2 days. The Dow fell 391 points on a print basis from last week's highs,reaching a print low of 7711.05 on September 21 exactly. We have since rallied 449 points from that low. The Bradley suggests we should see a high near Monday September 28 plus or minus 2 days. From there the Bradley turns straight down until late October,in a move which should prove every bit as severe as that from the July highs to the September 1st low print low of 7400. The Top-to-Top Count discussed last evening suggests we should see a top between September 25 and October 6. We have to use other tools to pinpoint the most likely date for the high due in that time frame. However it is unlikely the top will occur before September 25,when the Top-to-Top Count begins. No matter which day marks the actual high the worst part of the next decline should not begin until after that Top-to-Top Count expires on October 6. That is the actual high could occur well before October 6,but the decline will pick up steam after October 6. The Bradley target of September 28 plus or minus 2 days seems most likely. We stated that any rally above 8160 intraday would give an upside projection of 8295 plus or minus 91 points intraday for the Dow. The Dow did exceed 8160 intraday today. The actual projection given today calls for 8345 plus or minus 96 points intraday. From here on any decline below 7653 intraday and 7711 on a print basis will suggest the top is in. We frankly do not expect that to happen in the next couple of days,because of the Top-to-Top Count suggesting the high should not occur until September 25 at the earliest. However if the Dow breaks 7653 intraday anytime from here on and we are not already short we want all subscribers to move to 50% short with a stop of any close above 7953. If the Dow breaks 7400 and we are not 100% short we will move to 100% short. Alternatively we want to let this rally run its course and try to get short as close to the highs as we can get over the next few days. Since the top is unlikely before Friday at the earliest we will take no new action tomorrow.

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