Let me know if you agree with the following:
Assuming the middle of the current bid/ask as the AVIA price on the merger date, that gives the post-merger company about 30 million shares outstanding, after a 1 for 1 exchange for POKR shares. Therefore, AVIA's equity will contribute about 27 cents a share in book value to the post-merger company. Assuming 12 million is a fair value for POKR, that's another 40 cents a share in value (not all book value in this case) for the post-merger company. Assuming AVIA has no additional value other than its book value, that gives a post-merger company overall valuation of about 67 cents a share, or about the middle of AVIA's current bid/ask. Gee, its funny how AVIA traded down to the point where that would all work out so nicely.
Also, I called Joseph Charles + Assoc who will own a big pile of $2.10 post-merger company warrants according to the filing, and they acknowledged that these warrants were privately held by a group of brokers in the company. I had heard a rumor that they were working on a deal to support the company after the merger, but they, of course, wouldn't comment on that. It's nice to know, though, that a big firm has a big incentive to see the post-merger company price above $2.10. |
