Telebras (TBH) & Brazil Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil

TBH 0.452

-11.5%

Jan 15 3:59 PM EST

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To: Steve Fancy who wrote (8501)	9/24/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: MGV	Read Replies (1) of 22640

From the last article, if Cardoso does not win a 1st round victory, the election will not be resolved until 10/27. It would not matter that he would win in the 2nd round. The delay in policy implementation and the lack of a clear mandate after a 2nd round victory would be enough to punish TBR severely (read that mid 50s again) due to heightened risk of continued high rates causing severe recession next year or worse, a devaluation. The moral of the story: Root for a 1st round win if you are long TBR. Very significant piece of information from article: "Direct investors are still moving ahead in Brazil, where the consumer market is, by some measures, even bigger than China's."

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