Crunching the numbers
I haven't finished gnawing on the numbers from these various retail sources, but I will say that my original .67 estimate is looking wrong, meaning too low.
Now, I realize these numbers are probably both domestic and retail only. Hence, simple extrapolation from them results in pretty absurd numbers. I thought that when I took into account that the iMac had a delayed international release and that the AIO might make education sales worse than retail, that I would get numbers that were reasonable--perhaps even low.
I'm making conservative estimates all over the place, and I still get some pretty absurdly high EPS and revenue figures. 1 million units is most definitely not out of the question if the numbers from ZDnet and the C/Net article are even close to being correct.
When I made the original estimate, I was assuming high iMac sales but flat to negative G3 unit growth. These numbers fly in the face of this assumption big-time. I'm not sure how AAPL would've been able to do it, but if they were able to keep up with the iMacs and the increased interest in G3's, then they hit a grand slam.
Alomex-was the 214,000 figure you used for July sales concrete or extrapolated?
The ZDnet article states the following:
May 9% lower than April
June 27% higher than April
July 12% higher than June
April-May-June constitute Q3 and thus equal about 637,000 units.
In an equation, April = x
May = .91 x
June = 1.27*.91x or 1.15 x
1.15x + .91x + x = 637,000 units
therefore, x= 209,036 units
Therefore, June = 1.15 x 209,036 = 240,391 units
July sales were 12% higher than June
1.12 * 240,391 = 269,238 units MUCH higher than your 214,000.
This difference becomes important in further calculations, as well.
Andrew |
