Gene, FYA (Amusement): Beware of Pessimists
Below are a number of statements by respected sources regarding things that seemed implausible to them at the time. It is interesting to see how our willingness to accept the status quo and unwillingness to envision a future that is different can blind us to reality. The lesson I take from this is that I need to look beyond the immediate problem and encourage those who are willing to propose a different course. Too often I have been among the pessimists.
Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.
Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with
the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year.
The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957
But what is it good for?
Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp.,
1977
This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to
us.
Western Union internal memo, 1876
The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who
would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?
David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s
The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible.
A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith's
paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. Smith went on to
found Federal Express Corp.
I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.
Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in Gone With
The Wind
A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say
America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make.
Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies
We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.
Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962
Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.
Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895
If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The
literature was full of examples that said you can't do this.
Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M Post-It Notepads
So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even
built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us?
Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'
Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and HP interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer
You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all of your muscles? It can't be done. It's just a fact of life. You just to look at muscle development as an unalterable condition of weight training.
Response to Arthur Jones, who solved the unsolvable problem by inventing Nautilus
Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy.
Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859
The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives.
Admiral William Leahy, US Atomic Bomb Project
This fellow Charles Lindbergh will never make it. He's doomed.
Harry Guggenheim, millionaire aviation enthusiast
Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.
Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.
Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de
Guerre
Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances.
Dr. Lee De Forest, inventor of the vacuum tube and father of television
Everything that can be invented has been invented.
Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899
I think the result is that Intel's main business is shifting from
proprietary to commodity.....I will make a prediction for 1999. Revenues = $27 Billion, earnings = $6.0 billion. About $3.33/share.
Gene Parrott, resident pessimist on this thread, 1998
<gggggg>,
Mary
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