Washington Times - 09/24/98
By Bill Gertz
Vehicle activity photographed recently by a U.S. spy satellite indicates Russia is preparing to set off an underground blast at a
remote Arctic nuclear-testing site, The Washington Times has learned. Test preparations at the Novaya Zemlya Island test site were
detected over the past several weeks by a National Reconnaissance Office satellite, said intelligence officials familiar with a secret
report on the activity. The report was circulated to senior government and military officials last week. "We have observed activity at
the Russian nuclear-test range at Novaya Zemlya suggesting nuclear-related experiments are under way," a U.S. intelligence official
said.
The intelligence officials said the test preparations include vehicle activity near a deep hole at the island site. Trucks carrying filler
material were photographed unloading around the mouth of a shaft. The activity is similar to late preparations for an underground
nuclear blast.
Most underground tests involve putting a nuclear device connected to long cables at the bottom of a deep shaft, then filling the hole
with rock or concrete. The device is detonated and sensors measure the effects. The data is used for developing nuclear warheads
or testing the reliability and safety of existing weapons stockpiles.
The intelligence official said the latest activity spotted at Novaya Zemlya may be related to the July announcement by a Russian
Atomic Energy Ministry official that Moscow would conduct "subcritical" nuclear weapons tests in the next several months.
Subcritical tests are explosions that do not always involve a nuclear blast. The United States, which also conducts such tests,
considers them legal under the pending Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
A nuclear test would break Moscow's self-imposed testing moratorium that began in 1990 and would contradict Russia's
commitment to the Test Ban Treaty. As a treaty signatory since Sept. 24, 1996, Moscow is expected to refrain from any activities
that would undermine the treaty, even though it has not been formally ratified or formally gone into effect worldwide. Mikhail
Shurgalin, a Russian Embassy spokesman, said he was unaware of the activity on Novaya Zemlya. But he said Moscow is abiding
by its testing moratorium. "The policy is full compliance with the moratorium," he said.
The test preparations have raised new suspicions among some U.S. intelligence officials that the Russians are engaged in a covert
nuclear-testing program. White House, State Department and CIA spokesman had no immediate comment.
Clinton administration officials in the past have sought to play down evidence of Russian nuclear testing because of concerns it
would complicate efforts to win Senate ratification of the Test Ban Treaty. Republican aides have said the underground nuclear
explosions set off by India and Pakistan in May had made it unlikely the treaty would be ratified.
Previous Russian testing incidents also have raised fears among members of Congress that U.S. aid to Russia for disarmament
could be helping Moscow build new nuclear arms. Moscow recently tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile. Rep. C.W. Bill
Young, Florida Republican and chairman of the House Appropriations national security subcommittee, questioned Moscow's testing
activities in 1996. In response to a suspected nuclear blast that year, Mr. Young said, "I would be concerned about what their intent
might be." He said he would oppose using U.S. funds to pay Russia for weapons dismantling if the tests are being used to
modernize or develop new nuclear arms.
The test preparations identified this month are not the first time questions were raised about nuclear weapons-related activities near
Novaya Zemlya. In January 1996, U.S. intelligence agencies recorded what was believed to be a small nuclear test in northern
Novaya Zemlya. William Perry, then the defense secretary, said at the time that government analysts were divided on the issue,
with some convinced a small test was carried out and other saying the evidence was inconclusive.
Then, on Aug. 17, 1997, a suspicious "seismic event" was detected near Novaya Zemlya that led the U.S. government to suspect
Moscow set off a nuclear test. The Pentagon's top nuclear test analyst, Ralph Alewine, said reports indicated a "seismic event with
explosive characteristics" took place. The State Department filed a formal diplomatic note with Moscow seeking an explanation, and
was told the activity detected was an earthquake. The U.S. rejected the explanation. A panel of experts working for CIA Director
George Tenet later concluded the event was either a non-nuclear explosion or a rare underwater earthquake. Nuclear
weapons-related experiments were carried out around the time the event was recorded on seismic monitoring stations, the panel
said. The CIA believes the August 1997 activity could have been subcritical nuclear weapons experiments.
In February, Russia's Interfax news agency reported that seismic-monitoring stations near Novaya Zemlya has detected activity that
could have been a small underground nuclear test. The activity registered a 3 on the Richter earthquake scale, about the same size
as the event detected in August 1997. |
