no, I don't start over, if the day after the divergence the indexes realign in the direction from which the count started. Tues was an up day for the Naz and SPX, and it became clear on Wed. that the Dow was following the lead of the Naz and SPX. Today was the fourth day after three up days. I wouldn't have been surprised to see us flat to small down today, but the top was this am.
However, if on Wed the Naz and the SPX had closed down, and thus realigning the indexes in favor of the Dow, then yes, the four day count wouldn't start again until the first day of an up day. So it's obviously not a rigid system, where the indexes are always on a three or four day trend in a certain direction. There are flat days with little change, though we haven't seen much for that type of action recently. Not only that, but there are times where using my method can give you a losing trade (yes, believe it or not ;-)). As I remember, the July rally concluded with a nine consecutive day run. And yes, my put position bled red.
But we ain't in July anymore, Toto. |
