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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 276.58

+4.0%

Dec 22 3:59 PM EST

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (38997)	9/25/1998 8:37:00 AM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (3) of 53903

Skeeter, david, true. please listen to what i'm saying before answering the wrong question. i've had enough of that ;-) You never asked a question that I should answer...we were just discussing the merits of Korea selling to someone else. 1. korea can sell their fabs at a substantially reduced price b/c of duress. the buyers need not be korean. this means the buyer's cost basis is less than somebody who paid full price. period. FACT! TRUE! i said nothing about future upgrades and the like. the initial investment and corresponding depreciation will be LESS. FACT! TRUE! this isn't that HARD! I am sorry Skeeter, but this is just nonsense. Nobody in their right mind is going to get into the DRAM business if they are not in it already. All should know by now that DRAM is a cuthroat Commodity business where investors must expect to lose money...yes even if they get the soon to be obsolete fabs for nothing...Moores Law has not been disproven yet. MU got TXN Fabs for practically nothing and they still have to upgrade and expect another 6-12 months of negative cash flow. There are just too many other opportunities out there than to knowingly go into a losing business in a horrible sector. the koreans (hyundai) appear to be on par and well ahead of micron in most areas. mu isn't even close to 0.09 technology and a 15 gb dram - not even in r&d. hyundai already has it in their sights. FACT! TRUE I don't know where you are getting your info but although they may have one advanced fab and the ability to make larger DRAM does not mean the markets are ready for them and that the yields are even close to high enough to generate profits. Most of their Fabs are still above .21 microns and some at still .35. To get to smaller line widths and higher yields cost money in strong currencies such as $US. And that is for todays technology. RDRAM, DLDRAM, 256mb, 1gb etc, are still down the road and will require 12" wafers and new fabs to be efficient They are much better off focusing on their other businesses now like TXN did. DavidG

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