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Strategies & Market Trends : The Contrarian's Corner

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To: HeyRainier who wrote ()9/25/1998 10:24:00 AM
From: Mark Marcellus  Read Replies (1) of 113
 
<<In addition, an understanding of technical analysis will also be necessary, as it will serve to ensure an appropriate entry and exit point for both long and short positions.>>

Rainier, I'm enough of a contrarian to believe that technical analysis does not produce reliable enough results to be useful. However, I believe another possibility which should be considered is the use of mechanical strategies to select and hold beaten down stocks. Two which come to mind are Beating the Dow (and other dividend yield variations) or the bottom quintile method Mr. Dremen was pushing in the '80's. Beating the Dow has a tremendous track record, the bottom quintile method has produced somewhat spottier results.

The nice thing about mechanical strategies like these is they remove all judgement from the process, something that TA can never do. If you remove judgement, you remove the possibility that your own decisions will be infected by the emotional processes which create contrarian opportunities to begin with.

FWIW,

Mark
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