Thankfully, your view that this whole debacle was a legal necessity is a minority opinion. By the way, as a one-time police reporter who's covered rape trials, sexual harrassment complaints and sexual assaults, I know how gritty and detailed courtroom talk about sex can get. As a lifelong city kid, my sensibilities are very difficult to offend.
The following is the top story in today's New York Times:
September 25, 1998
PUBLIC OPINION
Poll Finds Clinton Is on the Rebound Since Video Airing
By RICHARD L. BERKE and JANET ELDER
President Clinton's standing with Americans has rebounded broadly in the days since the release of his videotaped testimony before a
grand jury, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
Moreover, the poll shows there are stirrings of a backlash against the Republican-controlled Congress and the House Judiciary Committee in
particular as it presses forward with an impeachment inquiry.
By a clear majority, Americans said they disapproved of how the Judiciary Committee has handled
the matter. While committee members said they released the videotape for the public's benefit, 78
percent of all Americans, and 65 percent of Republicans, said it should never have been released.
People said they objected to the committee's prying into what they regard as a private family matter
and that it was unnecessary to make public salacious details about sex. In addition, 65 percent of
Americans said Republicans in Congress were unfairly trying to weaken the president and the
Democrats. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans saw it that way as well.
But even in the face of a turnabout for Clinton, the first glimpse of how the Monica Lewinsky
scandal could play out six weeks from now in the national elections helps explain why Republicans
are sticking with an aggressive strategy. The Republican strategy is popular with the party's core
voters, and those voters are most likely to turn out at the polls on Election Day. Appeals to a
narrow, partisan core of Republicans may carry long-term risks, however, if it gives the party a
lasting image as overly partisan and out to topple a president.
The apparent resurgence for Clinton has come swiftly -- and is surprisingly pronounced. Not only
has the months-long slide in his personal ratings halted but, in a marked shift from only a week
ago, Americans also trust him more as a leader, like him more, are less inclined to think he
committed perjury before the grand jury and increasingly believe that the scandal is a private matter
that has little to do with his job as president.
Clinton is also helped by a growing sense among Americans that the investigation by Kenneth
Starr, the Whitewater independent counsel, has spiraled out of control.
In a telling display of the public's exasperation with the entire matter, people are now divided over
whether Clinton should be censured by Congress. Forty-six percent of all Americans favor
censure, as do 55 percent of Republicans; only a week ago 57 percent of all Americans wanted
such a punishment, as did 70 percent of Republicans.
Despite the more promising news for Clinton -- his job approval rating has risen in the past week
to a solid 67 percent and even to a respectable 40 percent among conservative Republicans -- his
gains should be viewed in relative terms. Most Americans, for example, continue to say that the president does not share their moral code.
But the most striking finding in the telephone poll, which was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday with 960 adults nationwide, was that
on question after question Clinton recaptured support. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Summing up the sentiment of many Americans who have grown impatient with the Judiciary Committee, Virginia Caperton, a 68-year-old
retired factory supervisor in Fennville, Mich., said, "I just feel like the Judiciary Committee is too partisan."
Mrs. Caperton, a Democrat, explained in a follow-up interview: "I don't think they're going to give him enough time to go through all of the
testimony. I don't think that the offense that he committed is worth all the time and the trouble and the expense of impeachment hearings."
Deborah Huisken, a poll respondent from Montague, Mass., said, "The members of Congress should look to themselves first and tidy up their
own backyards."
Expressing weariness about the duration of the inquiry, Ms. Huisken, 42, a freelance writer who is an independent, said of Clinton, "It's
appropriate for him to be censured, but it needs to be done as expeditiously as possible."
And Nancy Thirtyacre, 46, a Republican respondent from Wellsville, Ohio, who described herself as a housewife, put it this way: "This
whole thing is a personal matter between him and his wife now, and we should let the guy do his job so we can get back on track."
Echoing the 53 percent of Americans who said they would be satisfied if no action was taken against the president and the matter was
dropped, Ms. Thirtyacre added: "This whole thing has gone so far now that they're trying to dig up every little bit of dirt they can. But let's
face it -- there's dirt on everybody."
She also was among the overwhelming proportion of 8 in 10 Americans who said the investigation has not been worth all its cost, Starr's
inquiry has cost at least $40 million.
Seven in 10 Americans said they saw or heard some part of Clinton's appearance before the grand jury, although only 1 in 10 said they sat
through the entire four hours.
Six out of 10 people who watched Clinton's testimony said he mostly tried to avoid answering the questions. But, by the same margin,
Americans who watched said it was appropriate for him to refuse to answer questions about his sexual relationship with Ms. Lewinsky.
Among Republicans, 4 out of 10 said his refusal to answer those questions was understandable.
Clinton's bounce back in the last few days was reminiscent of when his popularity shot up after his State of the Union Message in late
January, which he delivered shortly after allegations about his relationship with Ms. Lewinsky, a former White House intern, were disclosed.
The president's gains seemed to have come at the expense of Congress and Starr. The overall rating of Congress is 48 percent, roughly
where it has been all year. But last week it was unusually high, at 56 percent. However, the current rating is still impressive for Congress.
In November 1994, just before the last midterm elections, only 20 percent of Americans approved of the way Congress was doing its job. A
year later there was a backlash against Republicans in Congress when the public thought lawmakers had gone too far and shut down the
government for partisan purposes. At that time, approval of Congress was at 26 percent.
The suport for Clinton may come because a majority of Americans think Starr has conducted a mostly partisan investigation to damage
Clinton. Sixty-four percent of Americans say the investigation is partisan; last week, 55 percent held that view. And 49 percent now say they
believe the president committed perjury before the grand jury, down from 56 percent in a CBS News poll last weekend.
Americans also made clear that they do not expect any president to be a model of rectitude. Only 21 percent said that having a moral role
model is most important; 65 percent said they would rather have presidents who could do their job effectively.
While Clinton's personal ratings have improved since last week -- he is viewed favorably by 45 percent of Americans and unfavorably by 38
percent -- those of House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is leading the Republican congressional strategy, have slipped further. The speaker's
favorable rating is 18 percent and his unfavorable rating is 34 percent; last week, the rating was 24 percent and 31 percent, respectively.
Republicans warn that Democrats should not be too heartened by the poll findings. "It's like they're in the eye of the hurricane," said Rich
Galen, an adviser to Gingrich. "I wouldn't take the plywood down from the windows just yet."
The survey underscored the gap that has confounded many politicians between the general mood of the public and that of the conservative
Republican constituency. Throughout the poll, the views of conservative Republicans were dramatically different from those of liberal and
moderate Republicans.
For example, when offered the options of censuring Clinton, beginning impeachment hearings or dropping the matter, 61 percent of
conservative Republicans preferred to begin hearings, compared to only 35 percent of moderate and liberal Republicans. The more
conservative Republicans are historically most likely to vote, and it is to those loyalists that congressional Republicans are aiming their
appeals.
While no national poll can measure the mood of voters in individual congressional districts, it can provide clues to how the election could
unfold. There are signs that Republicans at this point are in by far the stronger position.
Asked whether they would vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, 39 percent of
registered voters said the Republican and 44 percent said the Democrat.
But as other conditions are applied, such as past voting behavior, attention to the ongoing campaign and certainty of voting in November,
those numbers become more favorable to Republicans. The loosest definition of a likely voter produces a split of 44 percent Republican to 43
percent Democratic.
When conditions are applied that reflect typical turnout in a midterm election -- that is, with about 34 percent of eligible voters casting ballots
-- the Republican advantage is 50 percent to 41 percent. If turnout is unusually low, the gap would widen to 53 percent to 41 percent.
Americans say the firestorm that has enveloped the White House is dominating the nation's political and policy agenda, and preventing
necessary work from getting accomplished. Worries about the inquiry and related issues like declining values have eclipsed other concerns,
including the economy, education and crime. Nearly two-thirds of the public said the inquiry has prevented the White House and Congress
from doing any other work.
The public wants Clinton to finish his term even if it turns out that he committed perjury. Twenty-nine percent want him to apologize; 31
percent want him to resign; 26 percent want the matter dropped, and only 11 percent want Congress to move ahead with impeachment
proceedings.
One poll respondent who is squarely against impeachment hearings is Martin Valle, 72, a retired military technician from Hanford, Calif. "If
he did lie, he was just trying to protect himself -- any man would answer that question in the same way," said Valle, a Democrat. "I don't
consider this an impeachable offense." |
