Will do, Judy. I'll write an analysis over the weekend. Just did a writeup on Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and I repost it here for those who might be interested:
CCl has had tough going of late. At $29, the stock has moved into a bearish High Pole Top (HPT) pattern, that, with the overall p&f market indicators in a bullish mode, suggests near term weakness where it's possible the stock could retreat to the Bullish Support Line (BSL), which is at $27. The stock put in a big top in july at $44 with a HPT, however, the market was Bear Confirmed at the time and the stock eventually moved to as low as $26 off that HPT. HPT's are brutal in Bear Confirmed markets. I believe the BSL at $27 is the floor for the stock. The next p&f sell for CCL would be at $25. I don't think the stock is going to buckle under and give a sell
signal. CCL is still on a double top buy signal from a move to $31 in September, and now has completed the column necessary to complete a vertical count. The bullish price objective is $47.
Two problems persist for the stock. On a broader scale, CCl's industry group, Leisure, is still in Bear Confirmed status at 10% on it's Bullish % chart. This simply means that only 10% of the stocks in that group are on p&f buy signals and have bullish chart patterns. A reversal of 6% from this level, to 16%, is needed to place the group in Bull Alert status. Lot's of groups have already reversed up providing fertile ground from which to choose stocks. Carnival's industry group is currently not one of them. When the group reverses up, the prospects for stocks in the group will have improved considerably.
On CCL's chart, the stock's main nemesis, the Bearish Resistance Line (BRL), provides a heavy duty obstacle impeding upside stock price appreciation. This downtrend line was drawn in at the July, $42 high. It turned the stock back recently at $33 and the stock needs to break through this resistance line to change the main trend which has been bearish since July.
The current reading on the Leisure Bullish % is 14.20%, so the group is not far from turning to Bull Alert status.
Take care,
Bruce |
