<< If they are not in the business they should not even think of getting in. If they are in the DRAM business already, well they know it was a stupid move to get in and are trying to get out without much more loss...they certainly do not want to get deeper into a hole and lose more money.<G>>>
David, the question is whether the firms will shutter a useful fab, not a useless one. If they are not shutting down useless fabs because they have no capital for upgrades, etc, as has been postulated here, then the firm with capital will buy the fab...IF THE BUSINESS IS PROFITABLE. That is a far different question than shuttin down a useful fab in an unprofitable business, which appears to be reality right now.
Since nobody seems to care about the present state of the business, and since everybody is trying to predict its future, then the question is whether in the future, when the business has become profitable, when a Korean company shuts down a fab because it has lost in the no limit poker game, and has no more capital, are you saying that no one will be willing to buy the fab? That doesn't make any sense. Now, it doesn't make sense to go into the poker game if you don't know how to play. But a company with money will buy the fab in a heartbeat.
That's why the picture isn't good for the future. As soon as it becomes profitable, capital streams back in and overshoots the capacity needs of the industry, resulting in the same problem the industyr has now. The problem is the nature of the industry, not the particular problem of any given company. It seems like a nasty business to me. BWDIK. |
