All: yes most of the time analysts and T/A types will throw
out what happens on the double and triple expirations.
However, my analysis of the situation went far beyond just
that one day; we have been breaking down in the stats for
quite some time now. In fact, this breakdown started in many
of the indexes during late November and specifically in the
Nasdaq around the middle of October.
Today was a weak day, although if you just looked at the Dow
closing up a few points - it might not seem like it. But,
the Nasdaq and the tech stocks were down pretty much as was
the S&P. >
Intel couldn't hold its little move up at the beginning and
down it came. It has now closed below the 10 day moving
average line and the 133 minor support level. Unless it can
get some strength in here soon, it's the 130 level next -
where there is another minor support and the 20 day moving
average line.
As far as which direction everything is going to go
tomorrow, I don't really have a handle on it this evening.
There are just too many cross currents in here that could
turn things ever which way very quickly. And, even a day of
going one direction for now wouldn't necessarily rule out >
things going the other direction the next trading day. On
top of everything else, the Japanese market is selling off
rather badly early. If that keeps up through the night, I
have to wonder how much, if any, that will affect our
markets early in the morning. So, for the time being - I'm
just awaiting some kind of confirmation on the direction and
aholding my positions - but always ready to do what I have
to do given the circumstances.
Dan, thanks for answering the Money Talk BB question for me here on SI.
Jules, in last night's reply to you here on SI, I said that you crossed an equity with another equity - actually you hedged your Intel with another equity's put option. In my case, I've hedged the equity with an index put option - which I consider as two different things. I still don't like cross-protection (the protection of one security with another different security). If you are trying to protect something that you hold temporarily, it's better to buy the puts in that same thing.
In closing, I believe in spite of everything that I've said above, that there is a possibility tomorrow that Intel could be bought - especially if we could get a good move downward first.
Any buying would have to be predicated on 130 holding as otherwise any significant breaking of that number might imply that we would test the 50 day MA line - which is now located around 120.
All for this evening. Good trading. Jack |
