Jay, if we get the October minimelt, I think that VECO could actually go under 22, possibly even under 20. VECO has held better than most of the semi-equip because it own performance has been much better that the rest of the industry, its BTB is still close to 1 while the industry is close to .6. I just do not think that VECO can continue to deliver such stellar performance in face of declining demand for capital equipment and we should be ready for a less than stellar quarter before spring of next year. Once they fumble just a little, the stock, which is relatively thinly trade, could lose 10 bucks in a single day. I for one, am simply playing chicken during these rallies, playing a little with my favorite networkers (CSCO, ASND, XIRC and CCRD, the best of the bunch performance wise) and not touching any of the semis. If I were to start playing with the semis, I would start with the chip makers, not the equipment group, were I am starting to like ALTR, XLNX, AMD and INTC, but all on some major retreats (some 20% or more) from current prices. Right now, I am seeing a "little strength" early next week, at best, but by the end of next week, I think we will go into the beginning of the minimelt I have been worried about.
We could drop, IMHO, as low as the mid 7200, and if we get very large volume and a negative tick worse than -1500, I would be jumping back in.
Zeev |
